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Retail sales continue to struggle


By Robert Carreira, Ph.D./Director, Center for Economic Research
Published: Wednesday, September 1, 2010 1:21 PM CDT
In May, Cochise County's restaurant and bar and accommodation sales showed continued strength while retail sales continued to struggle. Countywide, restaurant and bar sales were up 3 percent in May, the fourth consecutive month of growth following 2 months of decline. Sales have been up in 12 of the most recent 19 months. For the first 5 months of 2010, sales were up 1.3 percent after adjusting for inflation.

Countywide accommodation sales, which include hotel, motel, and other temporary lodging stays of less than 30 days, were up 13.6 percent in May compared to May 2009. This was also the fourth straight monthly increase following 2 months of decline. For the first 5 months of 2010, sales were up 6.9 percent.

Despite strong performance in Cochise County's accommodation and restaurant and bar sales, retail sales in May were down 21.7 percent after the inflation adjustment. This was the third straight month of decline and sales have been down in 4 of the past 8 months. From January through May, sales were down 6.1 percent after inflation.

At the city level, retail sales in Bisbee were down 5.4 percent in May compared to May last year. Sales were down 0.3 percent for the first 5 months of the year. Sales have been down in 20 of the most recent 22 months.


Bisbee's restaurant and bar sales were up 1.6 percent in May. From January through May, sales were up 4.6 percent. Sales have alternated between positive and negative monthly growth for most of the past 2 years.

Bisbee's accommodation receipts were up 1.8 percent in May. Despite the increase, sales were down 7.8 percent in the first 5 months of 2010. Sales have been down in all but 2 months since July 2009 and have been down in 17 of the most recent 20 months.

In Douglas, restaurant and bar sales were down 3.6 percent in May. Despite the decline, sales have been up in 8 of the most recent 11 months. From January through May, sales were up 1.9 percent.

Retail sales are not reported for Douglas due to the city's two-tiered tax system, which precludes accurately estimating sales based on tax collections. Retail sales tax revenue for sales occurring in May, however, was down 7.5 percent (unadjusted) compared to May last year. For the first 5 months of the year, unadjusted retail sales tax revenue was down 2.6 percent.

Accommodation sales are not reported for Douglas due to the small number of establishments and the Arizona Department of Revenue's confidentiality policy.

In Huachuca City, retail sales were down 1.3 percent in May, following 4 consecutive months of growth. For the first 5 months of the year, sales were up 3 percent. Accommodation and restaurant and bar sales are not reported for Huachuca City due to the small number of establishments and ADOR's confidentiality policy.

In Sierra Vista, retail sales were down 24.8 percent in May. From January through May, sales were down 2.6 percent. Despite the decline, sales have been up in 4 of the past 7 months.

Sierra Vista's restaurant and bar sales were down 4.5 percent in May. Despite the decline, sales were up 4.1 percent from January through May, compared to the same period last year. The city's restaurant and bar sales have been up in 10 of the past 13 months.

Sierra Vista's accommodation sales were up 4.8 percent in May, the fourth month of growth after declining for 3 consecutive months. For the first 5 months of the year, sales were up 7.6 percent.

In Tombstone, retail sales were down 12.4 percent in May. For the first 5 months of 2010, sales were down 3.2 percent. Sales have been down in 21 of the past 25 months.

Despite the decline in retail sales, Tombstone's restaurant and bar sales were up 33.4 percent in May. For the first 5 months of the year, sales were up 11 percent. Sales have been up in 6 of the past 8 months.

Accommodation receipts in Tombstone were up 17.7 percent in May, the third month of growth following 3 consecutive months of decline. For the first 5 months of the year, sales were up 1.8 percent. Sales have been up in 4 of the past 8 months.

In Willcox, restaurant and bar sales were up 3.1 percent in May. From January through May, sales were down 8.8 percent. Sales have been up in 5 of the past 8 months.

Accommodation receipts in Willcox were down 0.7 percent in May. From January through May, sales were down 17.2 percent. Sales have been down in 25 of the past 32 months.

Retail sales are not reported for Willcox due to the city's two-tiered tax system. Unadjusted retail sales tax revenue, however, was up 34.5 percent in May. For the first 5 months of the year, unadjusted retail sales tax revenue was up 11.9 percent.

Sales in the city of Benson for May are not reported due to evidence of accounting or tax reporting errors reflected in the ADOR data.

Robert Carreira, Ph.D. is director of the Center for Economic Research at Cochise College. If you have any questions on the economy, please contact the CER at (520) 515-5486 or by email at cer@cochise.edu. Check out the CER's website at www.cochise.edu/cer.



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